Equity Research Hub — Daily Briefing

Morning briefing

⚠️

Upcoming Results: 3 Material Catalysts

HAR 9M Update 18 Apr (1 day) | CPI FY2026 Results ~22 Apr (5 days) | AAPL Q2 FY2026 ~1 May (2 weeks)

Executive Summary

Portfolio positioning: 1 Tier-1 high-conviction stock (HAR at 7.50), 8 Tier-2 moderate buys. Constructive stance maintained with 19 active coverage stocks and 5 watchlist names.
Macro backdrop: US-China tariff escalation dominates; Gold off April highs at $3,342/oz (flat). Brent $67/bbl weak on demand. SARB held 7.25% (Mar). ZAR/USD 18.09 (weak ZAR).
Top opportunity: HAR at 7.50 conviction—gold elevated with 112% model upside. 9M operational update due tomorrow with H1 dividend doubling to R3.4bn and production guidance 1.4–1.5Moz.
Key risk: US tariff uncertainty weighing on global markets. NKE and AAPL exposed to China supply chain disruption. AMS −4.5% on Motolotolo mine suspension (worker death).

Macro Market Overview

Gold (spot)

$3,342/oz

Flat

Brent Crude

$67.07/bbl

−1.2%

USD/ZAR

18.09

ZAR weaker

JSE ALSI

~84,500

+0.5%

S&P 500

~5,282

+0.1%

SARB Repo

7.25%

HOLD (Mar)

SA CPI

3.2%

Feb 2026

VIX

32.6

Elevated

Portfolio Conviction Tiers

Tier 1 (≥7.5)

HAR (7.50)

Tier 2 (6.0–7.49)

MTN • SHP • CPI • AAPL • NED • LSK • NKE • BLU

Tier 3 (5.0–5.99)

TFG • SOL • NTU • CCD • NPN • PPE

Tier 4 (<5.0)

AFT • MRP • CFR • AMS

HAR Harmony Gold Mining

BUY

Price / 52w Range R281.18 | R213.52–R428.88

Target / Upside R597 / +112.3%

Consensus ~R430 (3 Buy)

Conviction Score 7.50 / 10

Movement +2.32%

Recommendation ADD

Catalyst: 9M Update 18 Apr (1 day)

H1FY26: OpProfit +61% to R16.1bn. Doubled interim div to R3.4bn. Gold elevated. Eva copper EPC mobilisation Q2. Production guidance 1.4–1.5Moz.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology DCF

WACC 14.46% | Tg 4.0%

Gold (FY27E→FY28E) $4,700→$4,600

Hedge / FX 552koz collars | 17.00 ZAR/USD

Gold supercycle + production optionality. Hedge floor protects downside.

Model Upside9.0/10

Catalyst9.0/10

Consensus8.0/10

Technical5.0/10

Macro7.0/10

Health7.0/10

MTN MTN Group

BUY

Price / 52w Range R203.65 | R105.25–R213.98

Target / Upside R280 / +37.5%

Consensus ~R190 (Buy)

Conviction Score 7.00 / 10

Movement −0.66%

Recommendation ADD

Catalyst: H1 Results ~Aug 2026

FY25: Service rev +24% to R218bn. Nigeria +54.9% CC. EBITDA +33%. Adj HEPS +67%. R6bn buyback approved. Near 52w highs.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology DCF R395 (30% disc.)

WACC 11.6% | Tg 4.5%

Structure 4-division (SA/Nigeria/Ghana/Other)

African data penetration. Nigeria ARPU growth. Deleveraging to net cash FY27E.

Model Upside8.0/10

Catalyst4.0/10

Consensus9.0/10

Technical8.0/10

Macro6.0/10

Health7.0/10

SHP Shoprite Holdings

BUY

Price / 52w Range R288.24 | R250.61–R297.35

Target / Upside R335 / +16.2%

Consensus ~R314 (Buy)

Conviction Score 6.80 / 10

Movement +2.16%

Recommendation ADD

Catalyst: FY26 Results ~May 2026

H1FY26: Rev +7.2%, HEPS +7%. RSA margin held at 6.2%. RAC acquisition approved. Checkers growth strong.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology DCF

WACC 11.24% | Tg 4.5%

FY2026E Revenue R272.9bn | EBIT 6.03%

Checkers premium grocery gaining share; RSA margin expansion 6.2%→6.5%; defensive cash flows.

Model Upside6.0/10

Catalyst6.0/10

Consensus9.0/10

Technical7.0/10

Macro8.0/10

Health8.0/10

CPI Capitec Bank

BUY

Price / 52w Range R4,351.89 | R3,018.45–R4,833.32

Target / Upside R4,810 / +10.5%

Consensus ~R3,775–R4,818 (8/9 Strong Buy)

Conviction Score 6.30 / 10

Movement +0.87%

Recommendation HOLD

Catalyst: FY2026 Results ~22 Apr (5 days)

Trading statement: HEPS +20–25% YoY. ROE 40%+. Business banking entering growth phase.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology P/E primary (25x FY27E HEPS)

Cost of Equity 13.86%

HEPS Forecast FY26E 15,545c → FY27E 19,253c

Structural market share gains via digital-first. Business banking inflection. CLR declining.

Model Upside5.0/10

Catalyst9.0/10

Consensus8.0/10

Technical6.0/10

Macro5.0/10

Health8.0/10

NED Nedbank Group

BUY

Price / 52w Range R270.61 | R206.06–R318.39

Target / Upside R330 / +21.9%

Consensus ~R281 (9 analysts)

Conviction Score 6.20 / 10

Movement +0.99%

Recommendation ADD

Catalyst: H1 Results ~Aug 2026

Valuation: Cheapest big-four SA bank at 7.2x trailing P/E. ROE improving 13.6%→15%+. CTI compression via Avo digital. Active buyback R5bn/yr.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology P/E 6.8x FY2027E HEPS | DDM R326

Cost of Equity 13.77%

P/B × ROE R402

Value play in SA banks. CTI compression 54.3%→51%. Buyback 1.3% p.a. EPS accretion.

Model Upside7.0/10

Catalyst4.0/10

Consensus7.0/10

Technical6.0/10

Macro6.0/10

Health7.0/10

LSK Lesaka Technologies

BUY

Price / 52w Range R80.00 | R65.00–R95.20

Target / Upside R120 / +50.0%

Consensus ~R110 (Buy)

Conviction Score 6.10 / 10

Movement 0.00%

Recommendation ADD

Catalyst: FY26 Results ~Aug 2026

Turnaround: SA fintech turnaround. Bank Zero banking license catalyst. Adumo integration driving merchant acquiring growth.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology DCF R121

WACC 13.38%

Structure Dual-segment (Merchant/Consumer)

SA fintech turnaround. Bank Zero banking license. Adumo integration.

Model Upside8.0/10

Catalyst4.0/10

Consensus7.0/10

Technical5.0/10

Macro6.0/10

Health6.0/10

BLU Blu Label Unlimited

BUY

Price / 52w Range R8.79 | R7.42–R18.36

Target / Upside R15.00 / +70.6%

Consensus No formal coverage

Conviction Score 6.00 / 10

Movement −0.68%

Recommendation HOLD

Catalyst: FY26 Results ~Jun 2026

H1FY26: R5.2bn one-off loss on Cell C recap. Core biz profitable. First interim div in 8 years. Cell C now 49.47% associate.

Model | Assumptions

Target Price R15.00

Focus Core distribution post-Cell C

Core distribution biz profitable and dividend-paying. Cell C deconsolidation cleans balance sheet.

Model Upside9.0/10

Catalyst4.0/10

ConsensusN/A

Technical3.0/10

Macro7.0/10

Health5.0/10

TFG TFG Limited (Foschini)

BUY

Price / 52w Range R70.55 | R65.61–R140.70

Target / Upside R104 / +47.4%

Consensus ~R106 (4 Buy / 1 Sell)

Conviction Score 5.80 / 10

Movement −0.98%

Recommendation HOLD

Catalyst: FY26 Results ~5 Jun

WARNING: EPS decline >20% for FY26. UK/AUS consumer weakness. Near 52w lows (−48.9% from highs).

Model | Assumptions

Methodology DCF 60% (R101) + SOTP 40% (R107)

WACC 13.65%

Valuation 7.8x P/E (deep discount)

Structural margin recovery via TFG London integration + Bash scaling. Deep discount.

Model Upside8.0/10

Catalyst6.0/10

Consensus8.0/10

Technical3.0/10

Macro4.0/10

Health5.0/10

SOL Sasol

HOLD

Price / 52w Range R214.50 | R61.40–R229.23

Target / Upside R230 / +7.2%

Consensus ~R156 (4/9 Buy)

Conviction Score 5.70 / 10

Movement +1.95%

Recommendation HOLD

Catalyst: FY25 Results ~May 2026

Binary risk: Brent at ~$67 (weak). Strong rally from R61.40 lows. Near 52w highs. Oil sensitivity extreme.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology DCF R261 base

WACC 12.78% | Tg 4.0%

Brent (FY26E/FY27E) $82 / $80

HOLD—variant perception vs consensus. Oil sensitivity extreme vs current $67 Brent.

Model Upside5.0/10

Catalyst6.0/10

Consensus6.0/10

Technical7.0/10

Macro5.0/10

Health6.0/10

NTU Nutun Limited

SPEC BUY

Price / 52w Range R1.24 | R0.85–R2.02

Target / Upside R2.50 / +101.6%

Consensus ~R2.04 (5 analysts)

Conviction Score 5.50 / 10

Movement +0.81%

Recommendation HOLD

Catalyst: Results TBD

Execution risk: Distressed turnaround play. Debt collection/financial services. Illiquid small-cap.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology DCF R2.68

WACC / Beta 13.40% | 1.50

Focus Post-WeBuyCars turnaround

Post-WeBuyCars turnaround. PBD book growth + margin recovery. Execution premium.

Model Upside9.0/10

Catalyst3.0/10

Consensus7.0/10

Technical4.0/10

Macro7.0/10

Health3.0/10

CCD Cell C Holdings

BUY

Price / 52w Range R25.41 | R24.51–R32.00

Target / Upside R38 / +49.5%

Consensus ~R26 (1 analyst, Neutral)

Conviction Score 5.20 / 10

Movement −0.31%

Recommendation HOLD

Catalyst: Q2 Results ~Jul 2026

Key metric: MVNO growth trajectory essential. Net debt R2.4bn incl leases. Binary execution risk.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology DCF 40% (R47) + EV/EBITDA 60% (R33)

WACC 13.07%

Growth / Margins MVNO 17% CAGR | 18.8%→22.0%

MVNO/wholesale segment 17% CAGR. Margin expansion 18.8%→22.0%.

Model Upside8.0/10

Catalyst5.0/10

ConsensusN/A

Technical3.0/10

Macro7.0/10

Health4.0/10

NPN Naspers

BUY

Price / 52w Range R915.72 | R837.51–R1,311.44

Target / Upside R1,043 / +13.9%

Consensus ~R1,567 (7/8 Strong Buy)

Conviction Score 5.10 / 10

Movement +0.66%

Recommendation HOLD

Catalyst: FY26 Results 29 Jun

H1FY26: E-commerce rev +21%. 30% holdco discount persists. Tencent look-through key.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology SOTP 70% (R1,084) + DCF 30% (R948)

Structure Ecommerce portfolio + Tencent look-through

Buyback $7bn/yr

Ecommerce portfolio inflection. $7bn/yr buyback. Discount narrowing catalyst.

Model Upside6.0/10

Catalyst4.0/10

Consensus9.0/10

Technical3.0/10

Macro5.0/10

Health7.0/10

PPE Purple Group (EasyEquities)

BUY

Price / 52w Range R1.95 | R1.12–R2.74

Target / Upside R2.70 / +38.5%

Consensus No formal coverage

Conviction Score 5.00 / 10

Movement −2.50%

Recommendation HOLD

Catalyst: H1 Results released 8 Apr

H1FY26: Rev +8.8% to R258.5m. EasyEquities platform tracking well. No formal coverage.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology DCF

WACC 13.12% | Beta 0.65 | Tg 5.5%

Upside case Maiden div FY27E

Platform economics—dual revenue model. CTI compression. Maiden div FY27E.

Model Upside8.0/10

Catalyst4.0/10

ConsensusN/A

Technical4.0/10

Macro7.0/10

Health5.0/10

AFT Afrimat

BUY

Price / 52w Range R36.71 | R33.30–R56.71

Target / Upside R41 / +11.7%

Consensus ~R54.70 (Strong Buy, 3 analysts)

Conviction Score 4.80 / 10

Movement −0.22%

Recommendation HOLD

Catalyst: FY26 Results ~May 2026

Consensus gap: Iron ore + cement turnaround. Consensus well above model. Near 52w lows.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology DCF R40.65

WACC 12.8% | Tg 5.5%

Upside Iron ore domestic volume recovery

Iron ore domestic volume recovery. Lafarge cement turnaround.

Model Upside5.0/10

Catalyst5.0/10

Consensus8.0/10

Technical3.0/10

Macro5.0/10

Health6.0/10

MRP Mr Price Group

BUY

Price / 52w Range R157.84 | R146.28–R255.79

Target / Upside R200 / +26.7%

Consensus ~R251 (9 analysts, Overweight)

Conviction Score 4.80 / 10

Movement −0.10%

Recommendation HOLD

Catalyst: FY27 Results ~Jun 2026 (year-end Mar)

Integration: NKD acquisition closed 31 Mar 2026. EPS dilutive FY27E then accretive FY28E. Near 52w lows.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology DCF R210

WACC 13.26% | Beta 1.05

M&A NKD 487m acquisition | Studio 88 integration

Value retailer + European diversification via NKD. Studio 88 integration.

Model Upside7.0/10

Catalyst4.0/10

Consensus4.0/10

Technical3.0/10

Macro5.0/10

Health5.0/10

CFR Richemont

HOLD

Price / 52w Range R3,208.31 | R2,785.25–R3,822.00

Target / Upside R2,850 / −11.2%

Consensus ~CHF 182 (10 Buy / 4 Hold)

Conviction Score 4.40 / 10

Movement −1.95%

Recommendation HOLD

Catalyst: FY26 Results 22 May

Q3FY26: Sales +11% CC. Jewellery +14%. Trading above model FV. Luxury demand cyclicality risk.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology DCF EUR 146 (CHF 136 / ZAR 2,850)

WACC 8.775% | EUR 10yr Bund Rf

Risk Luxury demand cyclicality

HOLD—Cartier/VCA franchise quality, but limited upside from current levels.

Model Upside2.0/10

Catalyst6.0/10

Consensus8.0/10

Technical4.0/10

Macro5.0/10

Health8.0/10

AMS Valterra Platinum

SELL

Price / 52w Range R1,574.01 | R985–R1,850

Target / Downside R1,100 / −30.1%

Consensus ~R1,519 (5 Buy / 2 Sell)

Conviction Score 3.30 / 10

Movement −4.45%

Recommendation TRIM

Catalyst: H1 Results ~Aug 2026

Risk: Motolotolo mine suspended (worker death). Platinum +30% Q1 drove rally. EBITDA +68% YoY. Trading well above model FV.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology DCF R598 + SOTP R1,557 blended

WACC 14.63%

View Through-cycle platinum below spot

SELL—through-cycle platinum view below spot. Overvalued on current PGM prices.

Model Upside1.0/10

Catalyst4.0/10

Consensus4.0/10

Technical5.0/10

Macro4.0/10

Health5.0/10

NKE Nike

BUY

Price / 52w Range $45.44 | $42.09–$80.17

Target / Upside $64 / +40.8%

Consensus ~$71 (Buy)

Conviction Score 6.10 / 10

Movement +2.81%

Recommendation ADD

Catalyst: Q4 FY26 Results ~Jun 2026

Turnaround: Elliott Hill turnaround in progress. Q3: Rev −9% but beats. Inventory rebalancing. China tariff risk near-term.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology DCF $64.43

WACC 9.0% | Tg 3.0%

Risk China tariff escalation

Elliott Hill turnaround. DTC reset. Nike Running renaissance.

Model Upside8.0/10

Catalyst5.0/10

Consensus8.0/10

Technical4.0/10

Macro4.0/10

Health7.0/10

AAPL Apple

BUY

Price / 52w Range $266.43 | $189.81–$288.61

Target / Upside $290 / +8.8%

Consensus ~$305 (23 analysts)

Conviction Score 6.30 / 10

Movement +2.94%

Recommendation HOLD

Catalyst: Q2 FY26 Results ~1 May (2 weeks)

Services momentum: Services margin expansion + buyback EPS accretion. Apple Intelligence AI catalyst. iPhone 17 cycle Sep 2026.

Model | Assumptions

Methodology P/E 29x FY2027E EPS $9.41 | DCF $243 XC

WACC 8.72%

Upside case $95B buyback pace

Services mix shift to ~31%. iPhone installed base monetization. $95B buyback pace.

Model Upside5.0/10

Catalyst8.0/10

Consensus7.0/10

Technical6.0/10

Macro5.0/10

Health8.0/10

SENS Digest

MTN ROUTINE B-BBEE ownership compliance report filed. No financial impact.

No material SENS announcements for coverage stocks today.

Watchlist | Consensus Only (5 stocks)

ABG (Absa)

R250.00 | TP R272 (+8.8%)

16 analysts | HOLD

SBK (Standard Bank)

R321.47 | TP R276 (−14.1%)

9 analysts | HOLD

FSR (FirstRand)

R90.25 | TP R105 (+16.3%)

9 analysts (7 Buy) | BUY

PLTR (Palantir)

$142.05 | TP $185–195

Buy consensus | BUY

NEM (Newmont)

$113.73 | TP $154

Strong Buy consensus | BUY

52-Week Range Position

HAR

R213.52 R428.88

MTN

R105.25 R213.98

SHP

R250.61 R297.35

CPI

R3,018.45 R4,833.32

NED

R206.06 R318.39

LSK

R65.00 R95.20

BLU

R7.42 R18.36

TFG

R65.61 R140.70

SOL

R61.40 R229.23

NTU

R0.85 R2.02

CCD

R24.51 R32.00

NPN

R837.51 R1,311.44

PPE

R1.12 R2.74

AFT

R33.30 R56.71

MRP

R146.28 R255.79

CFR

R2,785.25 R3,822.00

AMS

R985 R1,850

NKE

$42.09 $80.17

AAPL

$189.81 $288.61

Macro Detail

Commodities

Gold (spot) $3,342/oz

Platinum $1,010/oz

Palladium $980/oz

Brent Crude $67.07/bbl

Iron Ore ~$100/t

Currencies

USD/ZAR 18.09

EUR/USD 1.135

Rates & CPI

SA 10yr Bond 9.10%

US 10yr Bond 4.34%

SARB Repo Rate 7.25% (HOLD)

Fed Funds 4.25–4.50%

SA CPI (Feb) 3.2% YoY

Catalyst Calendar (Next 8 Weeks)

18 Apr HAR 9M Update (TOMORROW)

~22 Apr CPI FY2026 Results

28–29 Apr FOMC Rate Decision

~1 May AAPL Q2 FY2026 Results

~May AFT FY2026 Results

~May SOL FY25 Results

~May SARB MPC Decision

22 May CFR FY2026 Results

~5 Jun TFG FY2026 Results

~Jun NKE Q4 FY2026 Results

~Jun BLU FY26 Results

29 Jun NPN FY26 Results

Risk Summary

HIGH: US-China tariff escalation — Binary risk for NKE/AAPL supply chains and global growth. 145% US tariffs, 125% retaliatory tariffs.

HIGH: Gold pullback from $3,500+ highs — HAR sensitive if gold breaks below $3,000. Model assumes FY27E $4,700.

MEDIUM: AMS mine suspension — Motolotolo worker death, regulatory scrutiny pending.

MEDIUM: TFG EPS decline >20% FY26 — UK/AUS consumer headwinds persisting. Down 48.9% from 52w highs.

MEDIUM: MRP NKD integration — EUR487m acquisition, EPS dilutive in FY27E then accretive.

MEDIUM: Oil weakness — Brent ~$67 vs model $82 FY26E. Negative for SOL.

Sector Exposure

Financial

Telecoms

Retail

Tech / Media

Materials

Gold Mining

Energy

Luxury

PGM / Platinum

US Consumer

Equity Research | Morning Briefing

Executive Summary

Macro Market Overview

Portfolio Conviction Tiers

HAR Harmony Gold Mining

MTN MTN Group

SHP Shoprite Holdings

CPI Capitec Bank

NED Nedbank Group

LSK Lesaka Technologies

BLU Blu Label Unlimited

TFG TFG Limited (Foschini)

SOL Sasol

NTU Nutun Limited

CCD Cell C Holdings

NPN Naspers

PPE Purple Group (EasyEquities)

AFT Afrimat

MRP Mr Price Group

CFR Richemont

AMS Valterra Platinum

NKE Nike

AAPL Apple

SENS Digest

Watchlist | Consensus Only (5 stocks)

52-Week Range Position

Macro Detail

Commodities

Currencies

Rates & CPI

Catalyst Calendar (Next 8 Weeks)

Risk Summary

Sector Exposure