Weekly Macro Summary — 16 April 2026

Equity Research OS | Weekly Intelligence Package
Reporting period: 10 Apr – 16 Apr 2026
Compiled: 16 April 2026 | All data from live web search
Prior week reference: Weekly_Macro_20260410_v2.md

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Executive Summary

The week ending 16 April 2026 was defined by three intersecting forces: (1) growing optimism around a US-Iran peace deal — Trump declared the war "very close to over" on 15 April, driving Brent down ~1.4% WoW and the VIX down sharply from 23.87 to ~18; (2) the April fuel price shock rippling through the SA economy — diesel +R7.37/l and petrol +R3.06/l from 1 April, the largest monthly increases on record; and (3) the IMF's April WEO downgrade of SA GDP from 1.4% to 1.0% for 2026, driven by the oil/geopolitical headwinds.

Commodities diverged: gold firm at $4,829 (+0.9% WoW), platinum surged to $2,108 (+4.9% WoW, recovering last week's losses), iron ore jumped to $106–108 (+7–9% WoW on China stimulus hopes), while Brent eased to $94.89 (−1.4% WoW on ceasefire extension hopes). The ZAR strengthened to 16.35 (+1.5% WoW), recouping ground as peace talks advanced. The VIX collapsed 24% from 23.87 to ~18, signaling a meaningful shift toward risk-on sentiment.

On SA inflation: still no new print — February 2026 at 3.0% remains the latest. The March CPI release is due 22 April and is the week's most important forward-looking data point. Economists expect a sharp acceleration driven by the April fuel shock, with headline CPI potentially jumping 2–4pp. The SARB repo rate remains at 6.75% (HIGH confidence, 7+ sources; EBNewsDaily's 7.50% claim rejected — see Concordance Notes).

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1. Commodities — Week-over-Week Changes

Commodity	Prior Week (10 Apr)	Current (16 Apr)	WoW Change	Sources
Gold (USD/oz)	$4,770–$4,803	$4,829	+0.9%	TradingEconomics, Fortune, JM Bullion, 150currency
Platinum (USD/oz)	$2,009	$2,108	+4.9%	TradingEconomics, Kitco
Palladium (USD/oz)	$1,542	$1,585	+2.8%	JM Bullion
Brent Crude (USD/bbl)	$95.92–$96.51	$94.89	−1.4%	TradingEconomics, OilPriceAPI, Fortune, EIA
Iron Ore (USD/t)	$99	$106–108	+7–9%	TradingEconomics ($106.38), GMK Center ($108.78 Apr avg)

Concordance Notes

• Gold $4,829: $4,828.68 (JM Bullion live, 16 Apr), $4,826.34 (15 Apr AM spot), $4,807.93 (TradingEconomics, 15 Apr), $4,781 (Fortune, 14 Apr). 4 sources within 1.0%. Confidence: HIGH.
• Brent $94.89: $94.89 (TradingEconomics, 16 Apr), $94.66 (OilPriceAPI live), $93.99 (Fortune, 15 Apr). 3 sources within 1.0%. Confidence: HIGH.
• Iron Ore $106–108: $106.38 (TradingEconomics, 14 Apr), $108.78 (GMK Center Apr 1–17 avg), $108.04 (GMK Center spot). 3 sources within 2%. Confidence: HIGH. Significant move from $99 last week.
• Platinum $2,108: $2,107.80 (TradingEconomics, 15 Apr). Single-source for exact figure. Confidence: MEDIUM. Directional move consistent with PGM recovery.
• Palladium $1,585: $1,584.50 (JM Bullion, 15 Apr). Single-source. Confidence: MEDIUM.

Forward Curves (Updated)

Commodity	2026E Consensus	2027E Consensus	Source
Gold	$5,055 (JPM Q4), $5,150–5,200 (YTD proxy)	$5,400 (JPM YE27)	JPMorgan, SSGA
Brent	$96 avg (EIA Apr STEO, revised UP from $79)	$76 avg (EIA)	EIA April 2026 STEO
Iron Ore	$94 (consensus)	—	GMK Center

EIA Brent revision is material: The EIA's April STEO raised its 2026 Brent average forecast from $79 to $96/bbl (+22%), reflecting the Hormuz disruption. They expect a peak of $115/bbl in Q2 2026 before easing to $88/bbl by Q4. The 2027 forecast was raised from $64 to $76.

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2. Currencies — Week-over-Week Changes

Pair	Prior Week (10 Apr)	Current (16 Apr)	WoW Change
ZAR/USD	~16.60	16.35	+1.5% (ZAR stronger)
EUR/USD	1.166	1.178	+1.0% (EUR stronger)

• ZAR recovery: The rand strengthened from 16.60 to 16.35 as US-Iran peace deal optimism gathered steam. Trump's 15 April remarks drove the latest leg. The rand is now approaching the 16.33 ceasefire-reaction low from 8 April.
• EUR/USD: ECB reference rate 1.1782 (16 Apr). EUR strengthening reflects broad USD weakness on ceasefire hopes.
• ZAR/USD YTD average: ~16.41 (MTFX data). Range: 15.73 (28 Jan) to 17.19 (30 Mar).

Sources: 30rates, exchangerates.org.uk, ECB reference rates, MTFX.

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3. Rates & Yields

Rate	Current	Prior Week	Change	Confidence
SA Repo Rate	6.75%	6.75%	Unchanged	HIGH (7+ sources)
SA 10yr Yield	~8.50%	~9.10%	−60bps	HIGH
US Fed Funds	3.50–3.75%	3.50–3.75%	Unchanged	HIGH
US 10yr Treasury	4.31%	4.29%	+2bps	HIGH
SA CPI (latest released)	3.0% (Feb 2026)	3.0% (Feb 2026)	No new print	HIGH

SARB Repo Rate — Concordance Protocol (CRITICAL)

Extraordinary claim detected and REJECTED:

EBNewsDaily (3 April 2026) published an article claiming "SARB holds repo rate at 7.50%." This claim is rejected for the following reasons:

1. No SARB MPC meeting occurred in April: The SARB MPC is bimonthly. The most recent meeting was 26 March 2026. The next is scheduled for late May 2026. An April 3 meeting would be an extraordinary inter-meeting event with no primary source (SARB press release, webcast) to support it.
2. 7+ concordant sources confirm 6.75%: TradingEconomics, Moneyweb, Finance in Africa, SAnews, FocusEconomics, CEIC (via prime 10.25% = repo 6.75%), global-rates.com.
3. Prime rate cross-check: CEIC confirms prime at 10.25%. Since prime = repo + 3.5%, this independently confirms repo = 6.75%.
4. EBNewsDaily track record: This is the same source that fabricated the phantom "March 2026 SA CPI 4.1%" in the prior week's v1 — subsequently corrected in v2.

Verdict: SA repo rate = 6.75%. Confidence: HIGH. EBNewsDaily claim flagged as REJECTED OUTLIER — single unreliable source, no primary source, contradicted by 7+ concordant sources.

SA 10yr Yield — Significant Move

The SA 10yr yield fell ~60bps from 9.10% to ~8.50%, driven by:
- Peace deal optimism (oil risk premium unwinding)
- ZAR strengthening (reducing inflation expectations)
- Possible positioning ahead of March CPI (22 Apr)

This is a material move and is directionally supportive for equity valuations across the book.

Central Bank Calendar

• SARB MPC last: 26 Mar 2026 — unanimous HOLD at 6.75%. Cited oil/geopolitical upside risks.
• SARB MPC next: Late May 2026. March AND April CPI will both be in hand.
• FOMC last: 17–18 Mar 2026 — HOLD at 3.50–3.75%. Second consecutive hold.
• FOMC next: 28–29 Apr 2026 — markets pricing 99% probability of HOLD.
• ECB: No decision this week.

Sources: TradingEconomics, Moneyweb, Finance in Africa, SAnews, FocusEconomics, CEIC, global-rates.com, CNBC, FRED, Federal Reserve H.15.

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4. Indices — Week-over-Week Changes

Index	Prior Week (10 Apr)	Current (16 Apr)	WoW Change
FTSE/JSE ALSI	~113,700	113,666	Flat
S&P 500	6,582.69	6,583	Flat
VIX	23.87	18.04–18.17	−24%

• ALSI range-bound around 113,000–114,000 despite strong underlying commodity moves. Banks and gold miners broadly offsetting.
• S&P 500 holding the 6,580 level. Tariff backdrop partially absorbed; ceasefire optimism providing support.
• VIX collapse: 23.87 → 18.17 is a meaningful de-risking signal. The market is pricing in a higher probability of ceasefire extension / peace deal. Below 20 = neutral territory.

Sources: TradingEconomics, Investing.com, CBOE.

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5. Realised Prices YTD (Jan – Apr 2026)

Metric	YTD Average	vs Prior Year	vs Last Week Estimate	Comment
Gold (USD/oz)	~$4,849	+50% est.	+$349 (from $4,500)	exchange-rates.org; strong bid continues
Platinum (USD/oz)	~$2,014 (Mar–Apr avg)	+118% YoY	Flat	JM Bullion/TradingEconomics
Brent (USD/bbl)	~$103 (Mar avg), ~$96 Apr	+22% (EIA)	−$5 (from $101)	EIA STEO
Iron Ore (USD/t)	~$108.78 (Apr avg)	+6% YoY	+$9 (from $100)	GMK Center
ZAR/USD	~16.41	−3% (ZAR stronger)	Flat	MTFX

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6. Model Assumption Divergence Flags

HAR (Harmony Gold) — MONITOR

Model gold price deck: $4,200 FY26E / $4,700 FY27E / $4,600 FY28E.
Gold YTD realised average: ~$4,849. Spot: $4,829.

• FY26E divergence: YTD realised $4,849 vs model $4,200 = +15.4% above model. Exceeds 10% threshold.
• Implied H2 required for $4,200 annual: Gold would need to average ~$3,550 for the rest of CY2026 — a 26% decline from current levels. Highly unlikely.
• Assessment: The gold price deck is effectively already exceeded for FY26. The model's conservatism provides significant upside optionality if gold sustains above $4,500. Current TP R387.36 (per latest PM review, 16 Apr). MODEL ASSUMPTION DIVERGENCE FLAGGED — gold price deck uplift would be accretive but model was already de-risked via Tg, capex, and production adjustments.

SOL (Sasol) — WITHIN TOLERANCE, MONITOR CEASEFIRE

Model Brent FY2026E: $82/bbl (set 8 Apr). Spot: $94.89. YTD Brent avg: ~$101.

• Spot divergence: +15.7% above model.
• YTD divergence: +23% above model.
• However: The model was set conservatively post-ceasefire, with the thesis that Brent normalizes toward $80–85 as Hormuz reopens. The EIA now expects $88/bbl by Q4 2026 and $76 in 2027.
• Implied H2 required for $82 annual: ~$63/bbl — unlikely unless full Hormuz normalization.
• Assessment: Model assumption is increasingly strained but was designed as a base case. If ceasefire extends and peace deal materializes (Trump signaling optimism), the model's conservative Brent may prove approximately right over FY27. MONITOR — ceasefire extension outcome (expiry 22 Apr) is the key catalyst.

AFT (Afrimat) — UPSIDE RISK

Iron ore at $106–108 vs consensus $94. Model assumes conservative iron ore pricing.

• Divergence: Spot +13–15% above consensus. WoW move +7–9% is significant.
• Driver: China stimulus hopes and April supply tightness.
• Assessment: If iron ore sustains above $100, AFT's FY2027E revenue benefits materially. WITHIN TOLERANCE but trending toward positive surprise.

CFR (Richemont) — NO ACTION REQUIRED

EUR/USD 1.178 (strengthening). ZAR/EUR cross ~19.29 (ZAR 16.35 × EUR/USD 1.178). WACC uses EUR Bund Rf. No material divergence.

CPI (Capitec) — MONITOR FUEL SHOCK IMPACT

Repo at 6.75% (unchanged). But the April fuel shock (diesel +R7.37/l) will push CPI higher in April–May prints, potentially delaying any rate cuts into H2 2026. The IMF downgrade (1.4% → 1.0%) adds growth headwind. Capitec's deposit-funded model is relatively insulated, but consumer credit quality may come under pressure from the "triple shock" (fuel + electricity + ZAR weakness). WITHIN TOLERANCE but watchlist for credit deterioration.

SHP (Shoprite) / TFG — FUEL SHOCK HEADWIND EMERGING

The April fuel price shock is the first real challenge to the benign-inflation consumer recovery thesis. Economists estimate headline CPI could accelerate by 2–4pp in April alone. The 22 April March CPI release will provide the first read, though the full fuel shock impact won't appear until the April print (released late May).

• SHP: Strong defensive positioning (food staples), but logistics cost pressure from diesel +R7.37/l is a margin headwind.
• TFG: Discretionary retail more exposed to consumer confidence erosion.
• Assessment: MONITOR — the March CPI (22 Apr) and April CPI (late May) are sequential tests. If March prints above 3.5% and April exceeds 5%, the consumer thesis needs re-evaluation.

NPN, PPE, BLU, CCD, NTU, LSK, MTN — LIMITED MACRO SENSITIVITY

No material divergence triggers this week. NPN benefits from ZAR weakness (Tencent look-through); BLU mildly negative on ZAR strength (Cell C USD handsets). No change.

US Stocks (AAPL, NKE) — NO ACTION REQUIRED

S&P 500 flat, VIX declining. Tariff backdrop being digested. No model-specific macro triggers this week.

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7. Key Macro Events This Week (10–16 April)

US-Iran Ceasefire Extension Negotiations — dominant event continues

The ceasefire (declared 8 April, expires 22 April) remained the dominant macro variable. Key developments this week:

• 10 April: Islamabad talks occurred under Pakistani mediation. No breakthrough but no collapse.
• 12 April: Al Jazeera reported key sticking points: Iran's nuclear program, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and Lebanon's Hezbollah offensive.
• 14 April: TIME and CNN reported officials considering a second round of talks. An "in principle agreement" to extend the ceasefire was reported by AP, though a senior US official told CNBC the US "has not formally agreed."
• 15 April: Trump declared the war "very close to over" in a Fox Business interview. Bloomberg reported both sides weighing a ceasefire extension.
• 16 April (today): Ceasefire holding but fragile. Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed with US naval blockade still in place.

Portfolio impact: The progression from "strained" to "likely extension" drove Brent down, VIX down, ZAR stronger, and SA 10yr yields lower. SOL is the primary direct beneficiary/victim of any binary outcome.

April Fuel Price Shock — SA macro structural event

From 1 April: petrol +R3.06/l to R23.25, diesel +R7.37/l to R26.11 (record high). Government response: temporary R3/l fuel levy cut (general fuel levy from R4.10 to R1.10) effective until 5 May 2026.

Knock-on effects: Logistics costs rising, food price inflation expected to accelerate, consumer disposable income under pressure. This is the single largest domestic macro headwind for SHP, TFG, and consumer-facing stocks.

IMF April WEO — SA GDP Downgrade

IMF revised SA 2026 GDP growth from 1.4% to 1.0% (2027: 1.5% → 1.3%). Cited Middle East conflict, oil prices, and inflationary pressures. WEO title: "Global Economy in the Shadow of War."

Eskom — Load Shedding Streak Reaches 328+ Days

As of 10 April: 328 days without Stage 1+ load shedding. Kusile Power Station reached full capacity (4,800MW). EAF 64.36% for FY2027 YTD (up from 54.14%). Structural positive continues.

SA FATF Grey List Exit

South Africa has formally exited the FATF grey list — a structural positive for capital flows and banking sector (CPI, NED, ABG, SBK, FSR).

SA CPI — Still Awaiting March Print

Latest released: February 2026 at 3.0% YoY (StatsSA, 18 March). March 2026 CPI scheduled for release 22 April 2026. The March print will be the first to partially capture the oil-price surge (Brent went from $69 to $95 in March). Economists expect an acceleration.

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8. Sector Context

Mining (HAR, AFT, AMS)

• HAR: Gold at $4,829, structurally bid on geopolitical uncertainty + central bank buying. Model gold deck ($4,200) is conservative — the uplift provides significant margin of safety. PM review completed 16 April; TP revised to R387.36.
• AFT: Iron ore surprise to the upside at $106–108 (was $99 last week). China construction season demand + stimulus hopes. If sustained, this is accretive to FY2027E.
• AMS: Platinum $2,108 (+4.9% WoW). SELL R1,100 target. PGM recovery is directionally negative for the short thesis.

Energy (SOL)

• Brent $94.89 (−1.4% WoW) on ceasefire extension hopes. Model assumes $82 FY26E. The spread is narrowing as the market prices in de-escalation. 22 April ceasefire expiry is the binary event. EIA now expects $96 avg for 2026, $76 for 2027.

Banks (CPI, NED; watchlist ABG, SBK, FSR)

• Repo 6.75% unchanged. SA 10yr yield fell 60bps to ~8.50% — bullish for bank bond portfolios. FATF grey-list exit is a tailwind. But the fuel shock may weaken consumer credit quality in H2. Rate cuts now pushed to H2 at earliest.

Retail (SHP, TFG, MRP)

• Fuel shock is the dominant new variable. Diesel +R7.37/l (record) will push transport/logistics costs higher. The R3/l levy cut expires 5 May. March CPI (22 Apr) will provide the first partial read. If April CPI (released late May) exceeds 5%, the consumer recovery thesis faces its first real challenge.
• Offsetting: no load shedding (328 days), FATF exit, two-pot withdrawals ongoing.

Luxury (CFR)

• EUR/USD 1.178 (strengthening). Global luxury demand moderating on tariff fears but franchise quality provides resilience. No change.

Telecoms/Fintech (MTN, BLU, CCD, PPE, NTU, LSK)

• ZAR strength marginally positive for BLU (cheaper handset imports). MTN and others domestically focused, insulated from this week's major moves. No change.

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9. Upcoming Calendar (16 Apr – 14 May 2026)

Date	Event	Portfolio Relevance
22 Apr	SA March 2026 CPI release (StatsSA)	First test of post-oil-shock inflation trajectory. Critical for SHP, TFG, CPI thesis.
22 Apr	US-Iran ceasefire expiry	Extension or collapse. Binary for SOL and oil-exposed names.
22 Apr	SOL H2 FY2026 operational update	Direct read on Brent impact.
28 Apr	HAR interim dividend ex-date	Price support catalyst.
28–29 Apr	FOMC meeting	99% probability of HOLD. Post-meeting commentary key.
5 May	SA temporary fuel levy cut expires	Potential further consumer pressure if not extended.
15 May	HAR FY2026 results	Proving ground for gold thesis and R387 target.
May (TBC)	AFT FY2026 results	Iron ore volume + cement read.
Late May	SARB MPC meeting	March + April CPI in hand. Rate decision critical.
29 May	CPI (Capitec) FY2026 results	Credit quality read.

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10. Portfolio Implications — WoW Shift

Compared to last week, the portfolio narrative is:

IMPROVED:
- VIX collapsed from 23.87 to ~18 — market-wide risk-on shift
- ZAR strengthened 16.60 → 16.35 — positive for domestic-focused names
- SA 10yr yield fell 60bps — bullish for equity valuations and bank bond books
- Iron ore jumped to $106–108 — positive for AFT
- Platinum recovered +4.9% to $2,108 — partial offset to AMS SELL thesis

EMERGING HEADWIND:
- Fuel price shock — diesel +R7.37/l is the largest in SA history. Structural headwind for consumer recovery thesis (SHP, TFG, MRP). Not yet reflected in CPI data.
- IMF GDP downgrade — 1.4% → 1.0% signals weaker growth environment
- Fuel levy cut expiry 5 May — consumer pressure may intensify

UNCHANGED:
- HAR: Gold structurally supported at $4,829. PM review completed; TP R387.36.
- SOL: Ceasefire dynamic remains binary. 22 April is the key date.
- NPN, BLU, PPE, CCD, NTU, CFR, MTN, LSK, NED: No material macro change.
- AAPL, NKE: US equities stable. No macro triggers.

SECTOR CALL:
- Gold/mining (HAR, AFT) remains the strongest macro-aligned sector in the book
- Consumer (SHP, TFG, MRP) faces its first real test from the fuel shock
- Banks (CPI, NED) benefit from falling yields but face deferred rate cuts

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11. Self-Review Checklist

Source Verification (Concordance Protocol)

• [x] Gold $4,829: 4 sources within 1.0%. HIGH confidence.
• [x] Brent $94.89: 3 sources within 1.0%. HIGH confidence.
• [x] Iron Ore $106–108: 3 sources within 2%. HIGH confidence.
• [x] Platinum $2,108: 1 primary source (TradingEconomics). MEDIUM confidence. Directional move confirmed by JM Bullion monthly trend.
• [x] Palladium $1,585: 1 source (JM Bullion). MEDIUM confidence.
• [x] ZAR/USD 16.35: 30rates (16.3503), range 16.32–16.38 across sources. HIGH confidence.
• [x] EUR/USD 1.178: ECB official reference rate 1.1782 (16 Apr). HIGH confidence.
• [x] SA Repo 6.75%: 7+ concordant sources. EBNewsDaily 7.50% claim REJECTED (see Section 3). HIGH confidence.
• [x] SA CPI 3.0% (Feb): StatsSA, TradingEconomics, CurrentAffairsZA, Moody's — 4 sources. HIGH confidence. March release confirmed 22 April.
• [x] US 10yr 4.31%: FRED, CNBC, TradingEconomics. HIGH confidence.
• [x] US Fed Funds 3.50–3.75%: Federal Reserve H.15, multiple wires. HIGH confidence.
• [x] ALSI 113,666: Investing.com. HIGH confidence.
• [x] S&P 500 6,583: TradingEconomics. HIGH confidence.
• [x] VIX 18.04–18.17: CBOE. HIGH confidence.
• [x] Market holiday check: JSE and NYSE both open 16 April. No holidays.
• [x] Release-calendar check: No pre-release CPI figures cited. March CPI confirmed for 22 April per StatsSA.

Data Provenance

• [x] All commodity prices from web search
• [x] All FX rates from web search
• [x] All yields/rates from web search
• [x] All indices from web search
• [x] No training memory values used for time-sensitive data
• [x] Every material data point has cited source
• [x] EBNewsDaily flagged and rejected per concordance protocol

Analytical Quality

• [x] Geopolitical assessment factual (ceasefire extension talks; Trump "very close to over"; Hormuz still closed)
• [x] Event dates verified against official calendars
• [x] Model divergence flags raised: HAR gold +15.4%, SOL Brent +15.7%, AFT iron ore +13–15%
• [x] Fuel shock impact assessed across sectors
• [x] IMF GDP revision included
• [x] Eskom 328-day streak confirmed
• [x] FATF grey-list exit noted

Items Requiring Follow-Up

• 22 April — Triple event day: SA March CPI release + US-Iran ceasefire expiry + SOL operational update. This is the most consequential date for the portfolio in April.
• 5 May: Fuel levy cut expires. If not extended, consumer pressure intensifies.
• Platinum/palladium: Still limited to 1–2 sources. Add Reuters/LBMA for next run.
• HAR TP discrepancy: CLAUDE.md shows R597 but PM review (16 Apr) revised to R387.36. CLAUDE.md update required.
• SOL TP discrepancy: CLAUDE.md shows R230 but model update (8 Apr) revised to R210. CLAUDE.md update required.
• SA 10yr 60bps move: Significant. Warrants re-check next week — may be a genuine repricing or a transient ceasefire trade.

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12. Week-over-Week Delta Summary

Metric	Last Week (10 Apr)	This Week (16 Apr)	Direction	Magnitude
Gold	$4,770–$4,803	$4,829	↑	+0.9%
Platinum	$2,009	$2,108	↑	+4.9%
Palladium	$1,542	$1,585	↑	+2.8%
Brent	$95.92–$96.51	$94.89	↓	−1.4%
Iron Ore	$99	$106–108	↑	+7–9%
ZAR/USD	16.60	16.35	↑ (stronger)	+1.5%
EUR/USD	1.166	1.178	↑	+1.0%
SA 10yr	9.10%	~8.50%	↓	−60bps
US 10yr	4.29%	4.31%	↑	+2bps
SA Repo	6.75%	6.75%	Unchanged	—
US Fed Funds	3.50–3.75%	3.50–3.75%	Unchanged	—
SA CPI (latest)	3.0% (Feb)	3.0% (Feb)	No new release	March due 22 Apr
ALSI	~113,700	113,666	Flat	—
S&P 500	6,582	6,583	Flat	—
VIX	23.87	18.17	↓	−24%

Biggest WoW moves: VIX −24% (risk-on shift), SA 10yr −60bps, iron ore +7–9%, platinum +4.9%, ZAR/USD +1.5% (stronger).

Biggest upcoming catalyst: 22 April — triple event (March CPI + ceasefire expiry + SOL update).

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This weekly macro summary was produced via automated scheduled task using live web search with multi-source concordance verification. All rates and commodity prices verified against 3+ sources where possible. EBNewsDaily repo rate claim (7.50%) rejected per concordance protocol. Next scheduled run: 23 April 2026 (post-triple-event).